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their lofty perches, first at Spain’s central bank and then as the I.M.F.’s top executives assessing global banking risk, José Viñals
and Jaime Caruana were well positioned to sound alarms about the looming bank debacle. But at a news conference in Washington
in April 2010, when analysts were raising red flags about failing Spanish real estate loans, Mr. Viñals — who a year earlier
had succeeded Mr. Caruana — offered assurances. The Spanish system was “fundamentally sound,” he said, and its needs for cash “very small.” A year later, as the banking crisis showed little sign of improving, Mr. Viñals
again called for calm, saying the market panic that had led to bailouts in Ireland and Portugal would not infect
Spain. Now that the recent failure of Bankia, the big mortgage lender, has prompted a 100 billion euro (about $125 billion)
European rescue, it is clear that Mr. Viñals’s forecasts were too sanguine. Mr. Caruana was no more prescient. Pressed at an I.M.F. news conference in July 2008 about falling house prices in Spain, he acknowledged
there might be loan losses. But he said, “The financial system in Spain is able to cope with that and is properly capitalized.” It is not that the I.M.F. was not paying attention. Under Mr. Caruana and
then Mr. Viñals, the organization’s economists produced thousands of pages of analysis that, in real time, chronicled Spain’s unspooling bank crisis. The I.M.F. says that it is not a regulator and that its economists and officials warned early
and often on the need for Spain and Europe to address its banking problems.
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